1. Who made up the "universe" or polling population of this particular poll?
It was mostly Democratic caucus-goers making up the polling population.
2. If 25% of people say they are supporting Bernie Sanders and the sampling error is 4.8%, what is the actual range of Sanders's support?
The actual range of Sanders's support is 20.2% - 29.8%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Another Democratic candidate like Biden could win 29.8% of the votes, and Sanders wins 20.2% of the votes.
4. What were the results found in earlier polls taken in Nevada this year?
A Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed Biden in the lead with 19% support, Sanders with 18%, and Warren with 8%. A Fox News poll showed Biden coming in with 23% support and Sanders at 17%, Warren and Steyer had 5%.
5. What changes took place in Nevada's candidate selection after 2004?
The state switched from holding primaries to caucuses and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party's demographic make-up.
6. Why does FiveThirtyEight say that it's harder to poll people in Nevada?
It is harder to talk to people. The work hours make it hard and the knowledge of a caucus is not familiar.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The infrastructure and state expertise in Iowas is more advanced to hold the caucuses than the Nevada caucuses.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
Nevada implemented a four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting.
9. Why does Nevada have a fluctuating population?
Nevada relies on the tourism and casino industries, so people come and go. Telephone polls become difficult to conduct in these conditions because a sizable segment of voters does not have local cell phone numbers. Numbers in public records may belong to those no longer living in the state, and new residents are less likely to be registered to vote.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
It is expensive because the need for pollsters to have staff conducting fieldwork over a 24-hour period rather than the evenings makes it hard. The costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models is also expensive.
It was mostly Democratic caucus-goers making up the polling population.
The actual range of Sanders's support is 20.2% - 29.8%.
3. Using the margin of error, describe a possible scenario in which Sanders would not win, but still fits the polls data.
Another Democratic candidate like Biden could win 29.8% of the votes, and Sanders wins 20.2% of the votes.
A Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed Biden in the lead with 19% support, Sanders with 18%, and Warren with 8%. A Fox News poll showed Biden coming in with 23% support and Sanders at 17%, Warren and Steyer had 5%.
The state switched from holding primaries to caucuses and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party's demographic make-up.
It is harder to talk to people. The work hours make it hard and the knowledge of a caucus is not familiar.
7. Why is it easier to poll the Iowa caucuses than the Nevada caucuses?
The infrastructure and state expertise in Iowas is more advanced to hold the caucuses than the Nevada caucuses.
8. How does Nevada allow early voting if this is a caucus instead of a primary?
Nevada implemented a four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting.
Nevada relies on the tourism and casino industries, so people come and go. Telephone polls become difficult to conduct in these conditions because a sizable segment of voters does not have local cell phone numbers. Numbers in public records may belong to those no longer living in the state, and new residents are less likely to be registered to vote.
10. Why is conducting a poll so much more expensive if you want to have an accurate Nevada poll?
It is expensive because the need for pollsters to have staff conducting fieldwork over a 24-hour period rather than the evenings makes it hard. The costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models is also expensive.
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